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Average state per capita income could approach high-income thresholds by 2046-47
(11-May-2026, 18:02 Hours IST)  

Poonam Gupta, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India, has noted in a speech that India has attained a virtuous cycle of accelerated growth and macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic stability is reflected in sustainable and resilient outcomes across inflation, the current account balance, fiscal position, debt quality, and financial sector health, among others. Key macroeconomic outcomes, especially growth (overall and sectoral) and inflation, are broadly less volatile and move within a narrower, more predictable range.

She highlighted that the pace of income divergence has weakened considerably with the growth gap between richer and poorer states narrowing over successive decades. Meanwhile convergence has been faster and more decisive across a wide set of welfare and development indicators: per capita consumption expenditure, literacy, nutrition, access to basic services, financial inclusion, and a range of health and gender outcomes. Lagging states are catching up, and the distribution of wellbeing across India is becoming more equal.

States have become more prosperous than before. India’s growth story consists of broad-based prosperity, with every state recording a significant increase in per capita gross state domestic product (GSDP) over the past two decades, indicating that progress has been nationwide rather than confined to a few states or regions. This is seen both in US dollar terms as well as in constant rupees terms, adjusted for inflation. Gupta opined that looking ahead, if growth trajectories of the past two decades are sustained, the average state per capita income could approach high-income thresholds by 2046-47.

Crucially, below-median states are projected to contribute substantially to this expansion, reinforcing the broad-based nature of India’s growth story. Realising and accelerating the path to this potential, however, would require moving towards state-specific growth strategies that are anchored in local strengths, structural realities, and their respective stages of development. This calls for holistic assessments, richer dialogues, greater awareness, specific actions across states, alongside learning from each other, to fully leverage their existing strengths and building new comparative advantages.

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