S&P anticipates that certain central banks will implement additional policy rate increases this year to manage inflation and bolster exchange rates. Within its baseline scenario, assuming inflation and exchange rate pressures remain moderate, it projects the tightening to be limited. S&P forecasts a 25 bps increase in the remainder of 2026 in select countries including India. Regarding India, S&P anticipates a move toward higher interest rates, supported by robust growth, sustained inflationary pressures, an ongoing conflict in West Asia, and weather-related vulnerabilities. They project consumer inflation to average 5.1% and the Reserve Bank of India to raise its policy rate by 25 bps in the current fiscal year.
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